400,000 fewer cars and trucks traveled the NJ Turnpike in the first three months of 2008 than over the same period last year, according to a recent article in the Star-Ledger. With the Turnpike widening predicated on growing traffic volumes (the DEIS states that “the purpose of the Proposed Project is to service existing and projected future traffic demand on the New Jersey Turnpike mainline and interchanges between Interchanges 6 and 9”), the Campaign wonders if the planners working to nearly double the Turnpike’s capacity from exits 6 to 9 have looked at the most recent data.

The Turnpike’s DEIS makes the case for adding lanes based on historical average growth rates of about 2.6% annually (from 1990 through 2002). It goes on to forecast continuing growth of as much as 60% from 2005 to 2012 during the peak period at selected interchanges under the no-build scenario, and as much as 123% by 2032.

But New Jersey Turnpike Authority data contrast starkly with those historical growth rates, showing that Turnpike traffic has in fact declined steadily in the last few years. From 2006 to 2007, traffic volumes declined by more than 1%. In the first three months of this year, volumes on the Turnpike were 0.7% lower than over the same period last year (and that’s not adjusted for the extra day of travel we had in February this leap year). First quarter 2008 traffic volumes are down 1.5%, or 800,000 vehicles, from 2006.

The Star-Ledger article considered the implications of reduced traffic volumes on the Turnpike’s revenue, concluding that the Turnpike Authority would likely have to raise tolls just to avoid defaulting on its current bonding agreements. Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Middlesex) told the Ledger, “My understanding is if they do nothing — no road widening, no improvements, no nothing — they’re going to have to raise tolls anyway.

The same article quotes widening proponent State Sen. Raymond Lesniak (D-Union) as suggesting that, along with the need to pay for widening the Turnpike, the threat of defaulting on its bonds offers even more reason for the Turnpike Authority to raise tolls.

Certainly, declining toll revenue is a critical issue, especially in light of New Jersey’s pressing transportation funding concerns. But the bigger story here is that the Turnpike widening proposal is predicated on bad data. It’s time for a reality check on these numbers. With gasoline prices nearing $4 a gallon and transit use surging, we might be finally seeing the end of the steady 2+ percent annual VMT growth rates that traffic planners have counted on for so long. And if traffic isn’t going to skyrocket as projected by the Turnpike Authority, it might be time to pare down or abandon altogether plans for a $2 billion Turnpike widening.