In a two-part series earlier this month, Streetsblog examined the consequences of inaction on the $10 billion gap in the MTA’s 2010-14 capital program. The capital plan is fully funded only through the end of this year, but there’s been barely a word from the state politicians who must figure out how to pay for transit investment. Using projections from the NY State Comptroller’s office, Noah Kazis concludes that doing nothing could result in a $3 subway fare and $137 monthly MetroCard, or deferred maintenance that would take the system backwards.

Bad Choice No. 1: Skyrocketing Fares

First, Kazis takes a look at a scenario where, faced with a lack of state funding, the MTA borrows the entire $10 billion needed to maintain and improve the system:

To pay for all that extra debt, the MTA would have to increase its yearly revenues the only way it can, by raising fares and tolls. According to Neysa Pranger of the Regional Plan Association, the MTA would need between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in new annual revenues to pay for $10 billion in bonds.

The 7.5 percent fare hike scheduled for 2013 — that’s on top of this year’s equivalently sized hike — is predicted to raise around $460 million a year, according to the comptroller’s report. Based on that number, it will take roughly a 24 percent fare hike to get $1 billion in new revenue and a 32.25 percent hike to reach $1.5 billion.

According to Kazis, that would mean “a base [subway and bus] fare between $2.80 and $3.00 and a monthly pass between $129 and $137.50 by 2014.” Applying the same fare hike to commuter rail, a $223 monthly LIRR pass between Hempstead and Penn Station would jump to at least $276 and as much as $294. A monthly Metro-North ticket between Grand Central and Tarrytown, currently $266, would cost $330-350.

Bad Choice No. 2: Plummeting System Conditions

What if the MTA instead defers maintenance and cancels improvements? Kazis sees buses that break down more often, subways that must slow down due to deteriorating tracks, and the cancellation of real-time arrival signs, security cameras, and expansion projects.

For a reminder of what the bad old days were like, read the introduction to the NYU Rudin Center’s 2005 report, “From Rescue to Renaissance” (emphasis added):

Only one-quarter of subway tracks were receiving mandated twice-weekly inspections. With insufficient track maintenance, the number of derailments soared in the early 1980s, to a rate of one every 18 days in 1981-82. After a succession of derailments in early 1983, red tags were placed at 400 locations with suspect track; these red tags instructed train operators to slow to a crawl.

For subway riders, the result was a system that performed unreliably and unsafely, if at all. At the height of the transit crisis in 1983, on-time performance dropped below 50%. Hundreds of trains never made it to their destination – in 1981, 325 train runs were abandoned on a typical day. Cars caught fire 2,500 times every year…

The commuter lines were also in dire condition. Metro-North approached “total collapse,” according to the US Railway Association, due to “virtually nonexistent maintenance.” Poorly maintained fleets at both Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road meant that cars broke down frequently and had to be kept out of service. Onboard, faulty air-conditioning systems resulted in conductors being issued wedges as standard equipment to prop open car doors for ventilation.

Skyrocketing fares, plummeting system conditions, or a responsible funding solution that keeps people and the region’s economy moving? It’s Albany’s choice.