“The potential transportation impacts are ominous.”

It’s a striking statement—something one might expect from a citizen activist, not a discussion paper drafted by NYSDOT. Leaked last week, an internal document addressing the potential impacts of the hydro-fracking industry on New York’s roads paints a clear picture of how NYSDOT and local governments lack the authority, resources and capacity needed to mitigate the costs the industry could impose on the transportation system. Making sure companies don’t privatize the profits and socialize the costs will be New York’s challenge.

Hydraulic fracturing (or “hydro-fracking”), the controversial process of extracting natural gas from deep underground, needs a lot of heavy trucks to haul equipment, pipes, water, sand and chemicals to and from well sites. In its discussion paper, which is dated June 22, NYSDOT estimates a peak of 1,200 wells being drilled over 20 years. That would result in an annual increase of up to 1.5 million heavy truck trips and an increase in peak hour trips by 36,000 trips/hour. To illustrate the impact of this, the document cites a rule of thumb: “pavement structural damage done by the passage of a single large truck is equivalent to that done by about 9,000 automobiles.”

The Marcellus Shale, New York’s largest underground natural gas reserve, is primarily located in rural areas, so many heavy trucks would roll over narrow, rural roads and already deficient bridges that are not designed for high volumes or extensive truck use. NYSDOT’s estimated costs to upgrade or repair roads and bridges are significant: $90-156 million for state roads and $121-222 million for local roads per year.  Safety and congestion are also cited as concerns. Recent major traffic incidents involving large trucks on rural roads in Pennsylvania give a taste of what could be coming to New York.

One of the remedies that NYSDOT recommends is “operational improvements”—i.e.,  widening and straightening rural roads, something that advocates for safe rural roads should be alarmed about. The lasting impact on communities’ quality of life and the potential impacts of induced growth are also briefly addressed. Kathy Hudson, Watershed Program Director at Riverkeeper, told MTR that in other parts of the country, this has been a “boom and bust kind of industry and there is no reason to believe we wouldn’t see that here.”

There are potential mechanisms to make the industry pay for the costs—such as excess maintenance agreements, bonding, and community impact fees—but the document notes that there is currently no framework for enforcement to hold drillers accountable. Furthermore, NYSDOT lacks jurisdictional authority on most local roads, and there is “no direct regulatory link” between drillers and the agency. Unless New York creates a more cohesive regulatory scheme, the result could be a “patchwork” of agreements between drillers and local towns.

When the document was leaked, NYSDOT and Dept. of Environmental Conservation spokespersons were quick to point out that it referred to draft guidelines from 2009. A revised environmental impact statement has been partially released, but the part that deals with socio-economic impacts, including transportation, won’t be released until later this month.