The MTA reported $220 million in unanticipated revenues last week, helping to somewhat alleviate its budget deficit. But the agency still needs to raise a significant amount of new revenue and is now suggesting that it will increase commuter rail fares and tolls by 3.85% (down from its earlier 6.5% estimate). MTA has also proposed raising the price of unlimited ride Metrocards, though likely more than 3.85% in order to make up for maintaining the base $2 fare.

But a review of economist Charles Komanoff’s analysis of variable tolling on MTA Bridges and Tunnels (see MTR #564) shows that implementing such a plan could dramatically reduce the burden on transit riders, and yield significant time savings for drivers.

Komanoff’s scenario holding off-peak tolls steady, while increasing peak tolls (peak= 6-10am, 3-8pm) to $6.25 would generate enough revenue to cover between 56% and two-thirds of MTA’s anticipated deficit, depending on how many drivers switch their commute to the off-peak period. Under that scenario, farebox revenues would need to increase by only 1.7% to 2.2%. Drivers, under such a plan, would save 0.5 to 1.5 million hours per year.

The Campaign tested another scenario using Komanoff’s model and found even greater savings for transit riders. Increasing off-peak tolls to $5 and peak period tolls to $6 would cover between 90% and 100% of the deficit, leaving transit riders pretty much off the hook.

It certainly makes political sense to raise tolls more than 3.85%. Such a scenario means tolls of $4.50 would increase to just $4.67. It seems plain silly to go through the process and rough and tumble political battles of a toll increase for a paltry 17 cent increase.

As the Campaign said in testimony at MTA hearings earlier this month: “Tri-State strongly urges the MTA to follow the Port Authority’s lead and bring its toll facilities into the 21st century.” We now add: especially if it means saving the fare.