Two weeks ago, the price of crude oil reached an all-time high of about $110 a barrel. The price has since fallen to about $102. (For some perspective, last year Americans were cringing at prices of $60 a barrel). If the dollar’s value continues to plummet, there’s no reason to believe that oil will return to even 2007 levels. And drivers could still see $4 gasoline at the pumps come summer.
But until recently, the increase in gas prices has not been reflected in diminished gasoline consumption. Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that gas consumption had fallen 1.1% in the first six weeks of 2008, compared to the same period last year — the first time in 16 years that gas consumption had slackened. The Journal wrote that “there is evidence that Americans are changing their driving habits and lifestyles in ways that could lead to a long-term slowdown in their gasoline consumption,” citing moves towards downtown living and more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Preliminary data from the Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Volume Trends also shows a shift in travel behavior, with national Vehicle Miles Traveled for 2007 dropping by 0.4% compared to 2006 numbers.
Economist and TSTC board member Charles Komanoff has pointed out that gas prices are more elastic than these raw consumption and VMT figures indicate. In an analysis factoring in gross domestic product as a measure of the economy, he finds that a 10% increase in gas prices results in a 2% decline in gas consumption, and suggests that the effect of higher prices on demand had been hidden by economic growth, which until recent months had been strong. Had oil prices not risen, gasoline use over the last few years would have been higher than it was.
So maybe, as the Journal suggests, Americans are finally responding to higher gas prices by driving less and trading in their SUVs for more fuel efficient vehicles. Sales of light trucks, a category which includes pickup trucks and SUVs, were 19% lower in January 2008 than in January 2007. Large car sales fell by 26.5% in the same time frame, while small car sales rose by 6.5%.
A recent article from New Jersey Future argues that New Jersey’s ample transit service and compact development patterns leave the state well-positioned to respond to rising gasoline prices because a relatively high proportion of residents have the option of leaving their car at home. The same argument can be made for New York City and the tri-state region’s more transit-friendly communities. Unfortunately, few places in the United States have the transit service and compact, walkable and bikeable communities needed to accommodate a shift in travel behavior.
The obvious lesson to glean from these trends is that auto-centric planning is becoming increasingly irrelevant to economic realities. As transit agencies must adapt to a potential age of climate change and peak oil, so too must planners. Not doing so will eventually leave residents in an economic bind, with no short-term way out.
Good article. Peak Oil is the beginning of the extremely high gas prices and increasing inflation as well, as documented in this report: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
Help us bring down fuel prices. Begin the Begin. Lets get started! Consumer Power can be organized and directed at specific products for the benefit of the group. Same as Organized Union power is directed at employers to achieve their desires. The first two fuel suppliers for our “do not purchase from” list will be EXXON and BP. Exxon includes Mobil, Esso and Exxon/Mobil. BP includes Amoco, AMPM, Arco and Castrol. The start date is a day we feel the pain most, April 15th. Remember, once on the “no purchase” list we agree not to purchase any fuel from these stations until they reduce the price to $1.50 per gallon. First, the email. Even if you do not currently purchase any of these products, you need to send an email. No Director of any corporation is going to ignore a couple hundred thousand emails saying “good bye”! If they do, they will become a believer on April 15th. First Exxon, go to http://www.exxonmobil.com. Click on “Contact Us” in the Heading and follow the directions given. Title your email “Fair Fuel Price”. Then BP. Go to http://www.bpconsum@bp.com. Click on “Reach BP in your country” and select the United States. Select “contact us in the United States” and then select “General Questions and Comments. My email is as follows: “Gentlemen, I believe your current fuel prices to the American Consumer are beyond fair and hurt the economic well being of our Country. Beginning April 15th, unless you immediately reduce the fuel pump price to $1.50 per gallon and agree to hold that price for one year, I will not support any of your outlets.” O.K.! Lets get started. Even if you currently don’t use either of these products we need you to send an email. If some of these stations are friends of yours, go ahead, fill up on April 14th and give them a copy of your email. That will help get some attention. On April 15th start using Costco, Flying J, Maverick, whatever, just not any of the above. If we continue to be ignored, then on April 22nd we will select two more companies and send more emails. These executives are not stupid. They will respond, maybe not immediately to the base we are demanding, but they will respond. And we will continue our demand! While I believe it will be all over within six weeks, you must prepare and discipline yourself to honor the commitment. Those lower immediate prices will be very tempting, but remember our goal! Now send this out to everyone in your address file. Please do it even if you are not sure about joining, some of your friends might feel otherwise. On the 10th I will be sending out all three communications once again just as a reminder for action. As my friend in the cold country would say, “just get er done”. PLEASE SENT THIS TO ALL IN YOUR ADDRESS BOOK
PEAK OIL is a global emergency. Many of the optimists here are right – but only in the timescale of 20 years. And we probably haven’t got that and with every passing week the peak oil “cliff” of declining production approaches.
It will soon not be radical to say “TAX SUV’s and Hummers OFF THE ROAD!”
We need electrification of transport and free regular reliable public transport.
SUV taxes could go towards hybrids and plug-in hybrids.
Oil is precious and needs to be rationed for AIR TRANSPORT, SHIPPING, AGRICULTURE and MINING.
NOT USED TO DRIVE A GAS-GUZZLER FROM A TO THE SUPERMARKET!
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One important event that isn’t covered in your post is the new stance that the gorvernment has taken on fuel efficiency. It isn’t much, but insisting on more fuel efficient cars and trucks will go a lot further towards lowering gas consumption than telling people not to drive their car of choice. Now we just need to change the law from 35 gallons by 2020 to 35 gallons by 2012. Here is the NPR story link if you want more details on the legislation: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17415995
there are quite a few recreation areas in the metrony area that really need additional bus services to reach them. Gas consumption and private car usage could be easily decreased if bike friendly shuttle buses from metro-north train stations such as cold springs were initiated. There are a lot of hikers and bicyclist that would take public transit if it was provided.
Hiker parking lots at Harriman state park are overflowing, yet no bus service through the park linking cold springs to sloatsberg.